В квітні 2016 року було опубліковано у польському журналі
з політичних наук «Polish Journal of Political Science» статтю «Ukraine Through the Prism of Geopolitical Challenges: Analytical Aspect»
(«Україна через призму геополітичних викликів: аналітичний аспект», перекл.), за авторством доктора
політичних наук, професора С. О. Телешуна.
Журнал
включений до
міжнародних наукометричних
баз ROAD
та CEJSH,
а також визнаний
Міністерством
науки і вищої освіти Польщі як
фахове видання. До складу редакційної комісії входять фахівці в галузі політичних і правових наук з країн
Західної Європи та північної Америки.
UKRAINE THROUGH THE PRISM OF GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES:
ANALYTICAL ASPECT
Director of the Institute of public service and local government, office of the President
of Ukraine,
Head of Department of
Political Analytics and Prognosis,
Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Sergey
Teleshun
Keywords: global trends,
public policy, Ukrainian crisis, think-tanks, corruption, gray area, financial
and political pressure groups, conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Abstract: This paper
examines the global trends that will be reflected in global politics.
Systematization of a large number of sources of major research centers allowed
forming a hierarchy of challenges and threats able to influence global and
regional policy. Special attention is given to Ukraine, events which
significantly influence the Eurasian and global political space. The article
gives an insight of the political processes in Ukraine, its problems and
achievements. Understanding the situation in Ukraine in the light of global
trends allows us to realize the impact on geopolitical balance of power in the
world.
Events in
Ukraine, as in Syria, became the catalyst for change that led to reformatting
of political and regional map of the world. Significant pressure from new
social, political, economic, military, informational and humanitarian threats
and challenges was put upon security and bureaucratic structures of the
European Union, NATO, UN and others. The obvious is that the global security
system based on the principles of collective responsibility of the twentieth
century is affected by a considerable transformation. This, in turn, has put on
the agenda the issue of the capacity of modern political and business elites
and the management establishment responds adequately to new manifestations of
systemic crises and threats. The efficiency of the management of public
authority institutions in internal and external policy is not only to improve
the analytical tools to identify key social issues, but also the ability to
form the institutional and civil mechanisms of preventive counteract against
the disintegration of the political and economic environment of the state.
But
traditionally forecasts are significantly correlated with the realities of life
and professional and volitional qualities of consumers of intellectual products
in the field of management. Currently, a large number of analytical studies,
prognostic versions of the future, futurological predictions from authoritative
think-tanks perform not just their main prognostic function - an objective
reflection of patterns of global and regional processes, but in most cases a
multi-purpose product of political influence.
Political
analytics in public policy is a tool of public opinion formation (an artificial
change of public attitudes, priorities, perceptions, expectations etc.) and
implementation of some projections of the future or for world politics the most
likely and expected models of situations development in high-risk areas.
Analytical
forecasts are often (have become) not only a means of pseudo scientific impact
on society, with wide manipulative tools, using misinformation, “gray”
technologies of the hidden influence on the individual and groups of
individuals, hybrid types of information influence etc., but also behavioral models
of national policy key actors. This is primarily due to political preconception
and relations with different centers of force, well-known expert-analytical
agencies. Accordingly, analytical findings of many of them are entirely
synthetic and designed in order to model, correlate and correct agenda and
project the necessary previously ordered future efficiently.
In early 2016
the global analytical and expert community, the leading "think tanks"
began to provide us with own predictive versions of events development in the
world both at global and regional levels. In many ways, the most influential
models of the future differ from each other, and therefore need to build a more
coherent and systematic view of the likely scenarios for the future.
In addition, it
is significant to emphasize that the complexity of forecasting and analytical
activity caused by the intensity, dynamic processes and increase of the number
of input data exponentially in the current development of the world. The
justification of this is a methodological weakness of well-known world
think-tanks in the matters of development of even short-term forecasts on
Syria, Ukraine migration processes, European Union, Mediterranean etc. This led
to a serious debate in analytic community in the US and Western Europe on the
revision of established strategies of information-analytical and expert
activities.
In particular,
the results of the scenarios made by the most "think tanks" in the
past year, according to our estimate, have come true with the coincidence of 40
per cent. Especially they reveal not always accurate forecasts regarding the
situation deployment around the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine under the
so-called "Minsk format", the resolution of the conflict in Syria
under the so-called "Geneva format", critical and final phase of
destabilization and destruction of the Russian Federation, significant decline
in economic development and social explosions in the People's Republic of
China, the stabilization of situation in the "Arab spring" zone,
efficacy of international mechanisms and institutions in addressing global
challenges (especially in the matters of war and peace) etc.
Key differences and contradictions in forecasts of the
world's leading information and analytical agencies
The analysis is
prepared on the basis of analytical materials of leading internal and
international think tanks, news agencies, research institutions, media, peer
reviews (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, The National Interest, The American
Interest, BBC, CNN, Huffington Post, Politiko, Open Democracy , Washington
Post, The Daily Beast, The New York Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian,
Washington Examiner, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Bild, Die Welt, Reuters, Stratfor,
RAND Corporation, Project Syndicate, The Economist, Washington Post, New york
Times, BBC, CNN, The Guardian, Strategic Forecasting, Heritage Foundation,
Transparency International, RAND Corporation, Syndicate Project, Council on
Foreign Relations, The Times, Le Figaro, Le Monde, Die Presse, Die Welt, Die
Zeit, Bild, Hurriyet, news agency Xinhua, Izvestia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta,
Kommersant, ITAR TASS, Interfax, UNIAN, Ukrinform, Ukrainian Pravda, Day,
Mirror of the Week, Correspondent, Explorer, Focus, week, Radio Liberty, Voice
of America, media design channel 112 and etc.). [1]
Global and
regional prospects
|
Discrepancy of real scenarios on the international
scene
|
Ukraine
|
The conflict
in Ukraine is not solved. Moreover, the probability of the situation
resolution in the coming years seems illusory. “Conflict freeze”. The
critical socio-economic and socio-political complication inside the country.
The degradation of the political regime, the confidence loss of the majority
concerning the existing political authority.
|
The Minsk format of talks
|
Currently, the
platform of talks slows down the process of the negotiations and demonstrates
its ineffectiveness in solving of the Ukrainian problem. However, there is no
alternative format yet.
|
Syria
|
The worsening
situation in Syria due to the increase of actors who more openly participate
in the events in the region (The Russian Federation, Turkey, Iran and others,
about 26 subjects and objects of the process.).
|
The Geneva format of talks
|
Seems similar
to Minsk format which reveals its inefficacy and low efficiency in the
negotiation process.
|
The Russian Federation
|
Despite
international pressure Russia continues its aggressive geopolitical behavior
in the world (Ukraine, Syria, military exercises on the borders with the
countries of the NATO-EU, conflict with Turkey etc.), even under the
worsening of socio-economic pressure it still keeps control over the
governance and social stability.
|
The Republic of China
|
Regardless
partial stagnation in some sectors, China experiences gradual economic
growth, infrastructural, scientific and military development, expansion of
trade horizons etc. The state intensifies its foreign and military policy.
|
The areas of
the “Arab spring” project
|
Much more
complicated socio-economic and socio-political situation, bordering on the
fact of the existence of this geographical range.
|
International relations system
|
The international
community demonstrates increasingly its inability to solve the key problems
of humanity in a short term, and international institutions show their
inertia and inefficiency in preventing global and regional threats.
|
Undoubtedly, the
past 2015 brought dramatic corrections to the planetary processes. This laid
the new tendencies and trends for 2016. Therefore, in this paper we
propose the own alternative vision of global and regional processes based on
the latest analysis methods and research findings of previous years. The main
attention is drawn to Ukrainian realities [2].
The main risks and threats at regional and global
levels
1. Uncontrolled
migration, permanent humanitarian and social crisis in some regions in Europe,
Latin America, Eurasia, the Middle East etc.
2. The threat of
global terror, extremism and weapons of mass destruction - "asymmetrical
approach".
Personalization
and local specification on the territories of Central and Eastern Europe.
3. Increased
number of regional points of tension in a nonlinear warfare.
4. Expanding the
geography of activities of quasi-state paramilitary formations - creation of
new zones of tension.
5. Energy
Revolution and redistribution of some regional markets in the world. Six zones
of conflict.
6. Critical
increase of social and economic inequality. Technogenic catastrophes and pandemia
in the centers of global influence and their periphery.
7. Unsystematic
civil conflicts and systemic crisis of the modern middle class. Criminalization
of political and social processes in Europe.
8. Strengthening
the role of national states and reformatting of supranational global and
regional political-economic entities of the twentieth century.
9. Threats to
liberal-democratic political trends: a global dimension. Strengthening of
left-social and right-national movements and NG associations.
10. Expansion of
boundaries and increasing number of cross-border conflicts.
11. Crisis
deepening and termination of post-Yalta global international relations period
[3].
Some challenges
and threats are worth looking at in more detail, but some issues need more
extended analytical material.
UKRAINE in light of global processes: challenges and
threats
Ukraine
being one of the “painful points” of the new world order formation is and will
remain one of the global and regional platforms of discussions with all the
negative and positive consequences. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian issue remains on
the agenda for 2016. However, its format can change significantly under some
conditions. This is primarily due to external factors: escalation of military
conflict, maintaining anti-Putin Western coalition, financial, economic,
military and political support to Ukraine. Particular attention in this context
is drawn to the internal political situation in the country: the way out of the
systematical political crisis, the implementation of reforms, and stabilization
of socio-economic and institutional life in Ukraine etc.
In order to
understand the logic sequence of events in Ukraine it is worth mentioning the
basic requirements of the Maidan in 2014: firstly, the protesters demanded
changes in democratic elites; secondly, social responsibility of political authority
to the citizens; thirdly, effective public administration in the key areas of
human life; and lastly, foreign policy issues - euro integration processes and standards
[4].
The Ukrainian
political class, as in 2014, again faces sharply raised issues of values that
would match the public mood and expectations, and fit into the framework of
modern Ukraine's national interests. By the way the first protest actions of
the students against the political regime of President Viktor Yanukovych in
2014 (Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporozhye and others) took place
under the national slogans and symbols of antiparty and anti-corporative
undertone.
The fact
is that politics in Ukraine by its characteristics remains undemocratic at
large. This is not only because there is a war in the East of Ukraine and the
Crimean peninsula is occupied by the Russian Federation, but because of not
being transformed into public policy which is oriented on the interests of
different social groups united by the desire to resolve socially important
issues and problems. Thus the implementation of this policy still lies in the
revolutionary expediency and corporate interests and remains out of the control
of civil society, which in Ukraine is more efficient than government institutions.
Evidence of this is a powerful volunteer and expert movement that has covered
almost all areas of Ukrainian society. In addition, more than 70% of Ukrainians
have negative attitude to the current political and post revolutionary
government and believe that reforms are being implemented in the wrong
direction. What is more, in the process of modernization of power some
corporate and corruption conflicts occur sporadically among the Ukrainian
political and administrative elite. Therefore the preservation of the elite
type of Ukrainian policy in the new version with external personnel management
system provokes confrontation between the state and civil society and allows
external global and regional actors influencing strategic decisions in the area
of national security.
In our opinion
one of the most threatening factors, which can lead to serious socio-political
and socio-economic cataclysms in Ukraine is the unwillingness of the governing
class to minimize the whole list of challenges which Ukraine statehood and
society face. A factor of external control may indicate a lack of quality of
administrative and political elite and the desire not to lose geopolitical
influence in the region [5].
In this case, we
feel the need to specify a list of problem areas, virtual and physical, leading
to tension and confrontation in Ukraine:
1) Inefficient
public policy of "post-Maidan" political regime in conditions of the
warfare and the political and socio-economic crisis. Fragmentation of reforms,
their social ineffectiveness and sometimes irresponsibility. Tremendous
disappointment of the majority of Ukrainians in "junior reformers."
The contrasting of "Revolution of dignity" ideas and the mood in
civil society to modern Ukrainian political class, corruption scandals etc.
[6].
2) The change of
political vector of development of certain areas of public relations occurs on
the background taking into account the external influence.
The
liberal-democratic values and ideas are being checked on Eurasia political
area.
The last 15
years were the years of social, political, economic and humanitarian challenges
to the globalized world. The degree of uncontrollability and situatedness is
growing every day and requires increasingly interventions and autocratic
directive actions by the countries themselves both at the internal and external
geopolitical levels.
Liberal
democratic traditions of political and social management often illustrate their
inability to influence events in the world, address new threats, such as
violent border changes, new types of terrorism, uncontrolled migration etc.
Currently, it
leads to the establishing declarative democratic, in fact, hybrid authoritarian with a focus on
national and religious peculiarities political regimes in countries with unstable
socio-political situation. This trend leads to considerable frustration for
elites and citizens, in liberal-democratic ideology in the developed
countries. These processes extend sympathy to use harsh management methods (US,
EU, Russia and so on) and lay the groundwork for the effect of the so-called
"escape from freedom" or "creeping authoritarianism." In
turn it is reflected in latest version formations of authoritarian regimes in
the form of phenomena of controlled democracy, information totalitarianism,
freedom of choice virtualization, the illusion of democracy. Besides, in
Ukraine as well as in the most parts of the world there is a systemic crisis of
the middle class - threatening imbalance in percentage of resources
distribution among the different layers of society in most parts of the world,
which could lead to large-scale campaign of disobedience, social boycotts,
riots followed by destabilization of the domestic and global levels.
It is illustratory,
especially in Ukraine, where the elements of civil society are led by the
middle class, which is today the backbone of modern Ukrainian political nation
with its own vision of national priorities in a globalized world. Most likely,
this will lead to a serious discussion about the role of the state, the
dominant political class, the big business representatives and the civil
society in terms of public policy and management. In this case we can expect a
compromise result of reviewing the concept of social contract and principles of
wealth allocation among all stakeholders.
3) The Military
confrontation in the East of Ukraine. The conflict delay under the pressure of
external actors and the conversion of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk
regions into the "gray zone." An attempt to increase the number of
nationwide and regional points of tension in a nonlinear warfare, or so-called
intermediary war in which the hidden actors through their satellites implement
various types of hybrid struggles to expand zones of geopolitical influence. An
example is the developments in Syria and Ukraine, which have become hazardous
phenomena in the world. Number of players involved in similar processes raises
the issue of formation of the modern way of global leaders political and
economic ambitions realization. Contrast of the situation lies in the following
two keys: a) Failure to resolve international tensions will lead to new
conflict zones and international relations crisis deepening; B) Awareness of
the possibility of global conflict will force international community to work
out alternative and relatively peaceful routes of mankind existence in the future [7], [8].
4) The civil
society (tension on a background of religious, cultural, historical,
socio-cultural and geographical features and differences in the interpretation
of events in the country for the last 3 years). Use of socio-humanitarian
conflict in the confrontation between state institutions and new forms of
extremism, radicalism and terrorism. They will expand their geography and
increase the frequency, repetition of acute forms of violence. It must be
understood that the danger comes not only from the militants who came to Europe
amongst migrants. The events of the recent years indicate that we deal with
terrorists-citizens of the EU and Eastern Europe. This fact makes the threat even more
dangerous and unpredictable, and indicates that the crisis of the established
principles of coexistence of different civilizations on the basis of the
liberal-democratic trend is developing. Presumably, the events will unfold
within the concept of the "clash of civilizations" or
"asymmetric war for survival." As a result of the need to review the
existing models of cultural dialogue will increase and global security concepts
will face radical transformations.
5) Information
confrontation. External confrontation with Russia, both in temporary occupied
territories and information space of large Ukraine. Information warfare enhancement
involving European and world media. The internal conflict between financial and
political groups of impact and their media holdings, including the
intensification of the struggle in a political crisis for the mighty resources
of the President of Ukraine Mr. Poroshenko, key national oligarchs I.
Kolomoisky, D. Firtash, S.Lovochkyn, V. Pinchuk, R. Akhmetov, partially Prime
Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and his associates etc. Descriditation of Ukraine's
information space and state institutions from the competing forces and external
actors: Russia, European Union, the United States etc. [9]
6) The political
confrontation between various groups of influence (at the national level - 12
groups, at the regional one - about 200) on the reallocation of all kinds of
resources and joining the government. In this confrontation there the party
organizations, associations of paramilitary volunteer corps, the public sector
and some criminal groups will be involved.
7) The clannish
bureaucratic opposition in the executive authorities and local governments with
political, corporate, regional and family-tied characteristics (competition in
managerial powers and functions in the reallocation of property, financial and
material resources between "the old" and "the new" public
servants).
8) The economic
confrontation between the financial and political clans in the spheres of
economy, the interference of third countries in this process. The
politicization of economic processes in Ukraine.
9) Power confrontation. The emergence of
uncontrolled paramilitary groups in some "peaceful regions" of
Ukraine who are able to compete with the legal state security forces for the
right to do justice and to lobby the interests of financial and political
sponsors. The criminalization of political and economic processes in Ukraine in
certain directions.
10) Commercial
confrontation. Ukrainian goods export blocking from Russia and the low
competitiveness of Ukrainian goods to European markets. The impact of the
energy revolution on the Ukrainian economy structure. The transition from
classical hydrocarbon resources to alternative energy sources (hydrogen,
natural energy) in front of diversification
of cross-continental channels of natural gas delivery, decrease of oil
prices and the emergence of new global "controllers" can cause
reformatting of the world system of relations between transnational
corporations, which accordingly will display the existence of states and
societies in a socio-economic and socio-political turmoil with varying degrees
of escalation. It immediately changes the scientific trends, technological and
industrial constructions in the entire civilization.
11) Ukrainian
crisis demonstrated the inefficiency of the international relations of the
post-Yalta world, which could be seen just after the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the Warsaw Pact denotification. Global policy subjects have not
offered adequate rules and norms of international coexistence so far. The
expression (demonstration) of this crisis were dramatic events in the former Yugoslavia,
the military campaign in Iraq, Afghanistan, the military campaign of the
Russian Federation in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, the growing
confrontation between the two Koreas, the tension in relations between China
and Japan etc.
The precedential
willfully interpret international law and the breaches of the already signed
international treaties, including the Budapest Memorandum and others, leveling
of collegiality in the important international decision-making and the law of
direct force by several global and regional centers, can cause a chain effect
in other parts of the world by more local players in order to expand spheres of
influence.
Today there are
vital needs in the context of global conflict avoidance and survival of mankind
are as species, consensus-oriented dialogue between the countries and
civilization concerning a new model of sustainable and incremental development formation [10], [11].
For Ukraine,
there are a lot of pro the new 2016 considering all the circumstances still goes through unresolved military conflict in
the east of the country, the annexed Crimea, the threatening socio-economic
situation, corporate clan-oligarchic corruption schemes and wars, a high degree
of social tension, ambiguous process of reforms implementation, state
management model crisis, inter-group conflicts between political and economic
groups and pressure groups, the pressure of external actors over internal
politics of Ukraine, frankly disappointment from Western partners regarding
Ukrainian political class actions, the continuation of combined Russian
aggression against Ukraine. The all above build up rather dangerous prospects.
Without any exaggeration, 2016 could be
decisive for Ukraine. The destiny of Ukrainian state subjectivity depends on consolidation of national political power
especially and understanding the need of radical technological changes in the
system of governance, based solely on national interests and priorities, the
general social good and progressive development of civil society.
Its subjectivity is determined with the ability to form national
interests and put them into practice in conjunction with efficient public
policy subjects.
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